Making Mahmood chancellor shows Burnham ‘subservient to City’, claims Polanski – UK politics live

Green leader says expected appointment shows new PM ‘won’t challenge the power of the bankers, or tax their wealth’The UK economy returned to growth in May, despite the impact of the Iran war on energy costs, official figures show. Heather Stewart has the story.Here is some reaction from journalists and commentators to the news that Shabana Mahmood is now expected to be Andy Burnham’s chancellor.It seems to me there are a few reasons Burnham might choose Mahmood over Miliband despite bluesky thinking it’s outrageous. Many of them are not-ed reasons but not allEd basically has the potential to be too powerful. His own agenda (people don’t fundamentally change) coupled with a known ability to drive it through Whitehall, would be a rival for the centre of gravity, when the PM is still trying to set his own after a decade awaySecondly I have never ever thought the words “Ed Miliband” in well over a decade of coveting English devolution, despite him having a northern seat. That feels tellingYes there’s the obvious immediate warring Labour factions going on, good to see that didn’t wait for Monday. But I wouldn’t really put Andy and Ed in the same bracket politically anyway. “Soft left” is unhelpfully vague and AB is actually quite hard to categorise, not least bc he movesI think Shabana and Andy are closer than ppl might think in outlook. On immigration he’s not that fluffy - and his latest seat (almost the same as the old one) carries the same imperative. Where he would balk I think is if it feels cruel to him: some of the Morgan era rhetoric feels unlikelyI saw a clumsy quote from a Labour source earlier about Ed being London liberal and some of Andy’s people being working class northerners. These are distinctions that wind people up. But there is, from where I’m sitting, a difference in how these people view things, their electorates for one!Finally, the markets. But if that was AB’s primary concern - ie if he was that worried Ed would freak them out - it may not have taken this long to reach a decision, assuming the decisions stands into MondayNB I know Ed’s electorate is in Doncaster. I’m not sure it’s particularly reflected in his outlook, but it is in AB’s.Where to even begin with these Labour briefings!1) Louise Haigh is not working class.What to expect from a Shabana Mahmood chancellorship?She’s a migration hardliner and social conservative, who rejected Corbyn’s hard-left economic agenda in 2015If Shabana Mahmood is chancellor it’ll end in tears…quickly. Through no fault of her own she’s given little thought to economic policy and yet likes to make a splash as a minister. There will be no rapport with Andy Burnham. The media and market will approve..until they turn.I remain unconvinced that someone who has expressed no previous interest in fiscal policy, has no obvious economic policy expertise and whose views on the topic are unknown is an ideal candidate for Chancellor.FWIW:Miliband - obviously qualified. Effective minister. Brings political baggage. Probably (and somewhat unfairly) gets a negative market reaction.The flip side of a CHX not known to have especially strong views on economic policy is a bigger role and say for a beefed up Number Ten. Suspect Number Ten North, MHCLG, DBT, Transport, etc will have a larger role.You absolutely do not need any formal training in economics to be a successful chancellor.(And I’d add - the same is true of central bankers). Continue reading...